The Blubber

It’s often only in hindsight that we can say for sure whether a popular activity is on the decline. Shifts in our habits of consumption tend to be unpredictable and not always easy to read in the moment. As any seasoned hiker knows, it’s easy to mistake a false summit for the real one—only to find out the true peak lies ahead.

Still, these inflection points do occur. Global wine production, for instance, reached its high point of 37.5 million metric tons—equivalent to around 50 billion bottles—back in 1979. Since then, it has dropped by roughly 27%, despite years of promotion around the supposed health benefits of a daily glass of red. Beer may have crested too. The amount brewed worldwide has dipped about 2.6% from its peak of 190 million tons in 2016—roughly half a trillion bottles.

A Sobering Trend
Beer consumption topped out in 2016, and wine’s been in decline for decades

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization

(Note: All data in metric tons.)

Include spirits and other alcoholic beverages, and the picture becomes even more subdued. Market research firm IWSR reports a marked decline in per-person alcohol consumption—from 5 liters of pure alcohol per adult per year in 2013 to 3.9 liters in 2023. Apply population data to those figures, and it appears global alcohol consumption peaked in 2016 at 25.4 billion liters—a drop of about 13% since then.

“This has been a story of gradual, long-term moderation,” says Richard Halstead, IWSR’s head of consumer insights. “We’re seeing a generational transition—from older drinkers who regularly consumed inexpensive alcohol with meals, to younger adults in their 20s and 30s whose drinking is more occasional and socially driven.”

Recent shifts have only accelerated that change. A wider range of alcohol-free options, alongside broader access to marijuana and other recreational drugs, has made abstaining more viable. The Covid-19 pandemic also played a role—drawing attention to health and nudging social behaviors toward more deliberate, less alcohol-centered gatherings.