Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest projects that SpaceX could reach a $2.5 trillion valuation by 2030, implying a 38% annualized return from its current valuation of $350 billion. The forecast is based largely on the completion of Starlink’s satellite constellation, which currently has 7,600 satellites in orbit, with plans to grow to 42,000 by 2035.
ARK’s valuation model—developed in collaboration with space research firm Mach33—estimates that Starlink could generate $300 billion in annual revenue, capturing 15% of global communications spending. That level of revenue would rival Apple’s current $391 billion in sales, underscoring the massive scale of the opportunity.
The analysis also suggests that once Starlink is complete, SpaceX will gradually shift focus to Mars colonization. ARK believes Elon Musk’s other ventures—such as Tesla’s Optimus robots and The Boring Company’s tunneling machinery—will play a role in developing Mars infrastructure. While acknowledging the speculative nature of extraterrestrial commerce, ARK expects Mars-related business to begin influencing SpaceX’s valuation by the late 2030s.
SpaceX’s growth has long depended on government contracts, with the company receiving more than $20 billion in federal funding over the past 15 years. This reliance helps explain Musk’s recent efforts to repair his relationship with President Donald Trump following their public falling out.
Investors can gain exposure to SpaceX through ARK’s Venture Fund (ARKVX), where SpaceX represents over 13% of total holdings, alongside other Musk-led firms like Neuralink and xAI. The fund has returned nearly 20% over the past year.
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