ARK Investment Management has released an updated forecast for Tesla, projecting a 2029 share price of $2,600 based on its open-source Monte Carlo model. The analysis includes over one million simulations using 45 independent variables and presents a range of outcomes: a bull case of $3,100 per share (75th percentile) and a bear case of $2,000 (25th percentile). These outcomes help frame ARK’s expectations for Tesla’s long-term performance.
The revised model pushes ARK’s earlier 2027 target out by two years and reflects the firm’s ongoing confidence in Tesla’s future—particularly its robotaxi business. ARK estimates that by 2029, nearly 90% of Tesla’s enterprise value and earnings will be tied to autonomous ride-hailing, which it expects to generate significantly higher margins than the company’s electric vehicle (EV) segment. EVs, while still projected to represent about a quarter of sales, are forecasted to contribute just 10% of total earnings.
In ARK’s modeled scenarios, Tesla’s vehicle sales range from 5.8 million (bear) to 14.4 million (bull), while revenue from the robotaxi segment ranges between $603 billion and $951 billion. Gross and EBITDA margins are expected to reach above 30% in both scenarios, supported by high-margin autonomous services. Market capitalization projections range from $7 trillion to $10.9 trillion, representing compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) of 56% and 69%, respectively, from Tesla’s current share price of approximately $170.
Despite the detailed modeling, ARK emphasizes that the forecasts are inherently uncertain and based on a series of assumptions, including capital efficiency, gross margins, and Tesla’s ability to scale. The analysis reflects ARK’s optimistic long-term view but is not intended as investment advice. The firm cautions that real-world outcomes could vary significantly from modeled projections.
