The Blubber

A recent report from Statistics Canada has unveiled a significant change in the methodology used to count Canada's non-permanent residents (NPRs), leading to a substantial increase in their estimated population.

According to the latest population estimate, there are approximately 2,198,679 non-permanent residents in Canada, which marks a notable difference of over one million individuals from the figures reported in the 2021 Census.

This revised methodology is of considerable significance because it acknowledges that Canada's NPR population was previously undercounted. The implications of this update extend to various facets of Canadian public policy, including immigration strategies, economic and labor market planning, and housing policies, among other vital areas.

The latest data reveals a remarkable 46% year-over-year increase in the number of non-permanent residents in Canada. This substantial growth is primarily attributed to a surge in work and study permits and represents the highest rate of NPR growth recorded since records began in 1971/72.

As of July 1, 2023, Canada's overall population stands at nearly 40.1 million people, reflecting an increase of 1,158,705 individuals (approximately 2.9%) from the previous year's estimate. Notably, this places Canada at the forefront among G7 countries for population growth and ranks it among the top 20 nations globally in terms of population growth.

The report indicates that the observed population growth rate for the past year (+3.3%) is the highest recorded over a 12-month period since 1957. If this growth rate remains consistent in the future, it could result in Canada's population doubling within 25 years.

Furthermore, the report highlights that approximately 98% of the population growth in Canada from July 1, 2022, to July 1, 2023, is attributed to net international migration, with only 2% stemming from the difference between births and deaths.

The substantial growth in international migration is primarily driven by factors such as the arrival of nearly 470,000 new permanent residents and an increase of nearly 700,000 non-permanent residents in the country.