Election betting has taken a prominent role in the 2024 campaign, with mainstream publications now featuring odds alongside polls and other election models. Millions are watching these betting markets closely, speculating on whether market dynamics are revealing genuine probabilities for the election outcome.
Donald Trump has his largest ever lead on Polymarket, with a 67% chance to win the US Presidential election, compared to Kamala Harris' 33%.
10/29/2024
This level of attention is a recent development. In 2020, election betting was a niche yet growing area. Polymarket saw just over $10 million in bets on that election, with Joe Biden as the favorite. This year, however, total betting volume is nearing $2.5 billion, with Donald Trump currently given a 67% chance of winning. This probability is notably higher than those estimated by poll-based models but aligns more closely with smaller markets and traditional casino betting lines that have mirrored its shift.
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