At last week's Aspen Ideas Festival, Ford CEO Jim Farley sounded the alarm on what he calls the “essential economy”—the overlooked world of people who move, build, and repair things. According to Farley, the U.S. has neglected this backbone of American productivity by underinvesting in vocational training, much of which is outdated and geared toward a mid-20th century model rather than the demands of the coming decades.
Farley argued that while the country obsesses over college degrees and white-collar paths, the real opportunity—and looming crisis—is in skilled trades. With demand for hands-on workers set to explode, especially amid the AI boom, Farley pointed out a growing gap: roughly 600,000 open jobs in manufacturing, and nearly 500,000 in construction.
“Everyone talks about the American Dream like it only comes through a college degree,” Farley said. “But that’s not true anymore—if it ever was. The reality is, AI is going to wipe out half of white-collar jobs in this country. Are we really steering our kids in the right direction?”
Farley isn’t alone. His warning joins a growing chorus of tech and corporate leaders sounding the alarm about AI’s impact on the labor force—especially for entry-level office roles. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy recently told employees that AI efficiencies will shrink the company’s white-collar workforce in the coming years. Anthropic’s Dario Amodei went even further, predicting up to 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs could disappear in five years, pushing unemployment as high as 20%.
Already, the impact is visible. LinkedIn’s Aneesh Raman has noted that junior software developers, legal assistants, and retail trainees—roles that once gave young workers a foothold—are increasingly being replaced by AI tools that can handle repetitive tasks faster and cheaper.
Farley, meanwhile, sees an opening. Trade schools are starting to gain ground with younger Americans rethinking college, and Ford is investing in upskilling workers to meet the surge in demand.
“We all feel it—America isn’t operating at full potential,” Farley said. “We need to shift the national mindset. The essential economy is where our strength lies, and where the future needs us most.”
