The Blubber

In an interview with Fox Business’s Maria Bartiromo, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said a recession is a “likely outcome,” though he deferred to his team of economists on the specifics.

“I am going to defer to my economists at this point, but I think probably. That’s a likely outcome,” Dimon said when asked about the possibility of a recession.

He noted that while markets aren’t always accurate, they are currently reflecting deep uncertainty.

“Markets aren’t always right, but sometimes they are right,” he said. “I think they’re right this time because they’re pricing uncertainty” at both macroeconomic and microeconomic levels.

Dimon warned that if companies begin pulling back, it could affect consumer behavior and business confidence.

“If companies start cutting back, consumer spending changes and business sentiment changes,” he explained. “Nobody is wishing for that, but hopefully, if there is [a recession], it will be short.”

He emphasized that resolving trade tensions would be a step toward restoring economic clarity.

“Fixing these tariff issues and trade issues would be a good thing to do. That would get one major uncertainty behind us,” Dimon said. “We have the strongest economy in the world. It would be good not to add to the uncertainty out there.”

In his annual letter to shareholders, released Monday, Dimon had already expressed concern about President Trump’s tariff policies, warning they could lead to higher inflation and a slowdown in growth.

He noted that he began writing the letter before the most recent tariff announcements and described the economic outlook as already weakening at the time.

Dimon cautioned shareholders to prepare for broader uncertainty, pointing to a range of risks including:

• Higher prices on both imported and domestic goods
• Potential retaliatory measures by other countries—including targeting services
• Impacts on business confidence, capital flows, and corporate earnings
• Possible effects on the value of the U.S. dollar