The Blubber

Humanoid robots could eventually surpass the auto industry in economic significance, according to Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), which projects the market could generate up to $5 trillion in annual revenue by mid-century as adoption spreads from industrial and commercial sectors into households.

The firm envisions as many as 1 billion robots in use by 2050, with widespread adoption beginning in the 2030s. By then, annual revenues could reach $4.7 trillion—roughly twice the combined sales of the world’s 20 largest carmakers today.

The transition is expected to be gradual. By 2035, Morgan Stanley analysts estimate there could be 13 million humanoid robots deployed, primarily in commercial and industrial settings, where tasks tend to be structured and repetitive.

Industrial and commercial use cases are expected to dominate, accounting for more than 90% of the installed base by 2050. In contrast, household adoption will likely remain limited for longer, held back by cost, safety, and regulatory barriers, as well as the unpredictability of domestic tasks.

Morgan Stanley identified Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) as a top contender with its Optimus robot project, citing the company’s full-stack integration of hardware, software, and AI. Companies that control the “brains, bodies, branding, and ecosystems” of humanoids are seen as offering the highest value, the analysts wrote.

Other major players include Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL), both of which are shaping foundational AI platforms for robotics. Nvidia’s Isaac and Google DeepMind’s Gemini Robotics were highlighted as potential industry standards.

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Meta (NASDAQ:META) were also named among leading developers of AI “robot brains,” signaling their growing roles in shaping the intelligence behind next-generation robots.