The Blubber

NASA Raises Odds of City-Destroying Asteroid Impact in 2032

NASA has increased the estimated probability that a major asteroid impact could occur in 2032, with the latest data suggesting a 1 in 32 chance (3.1%) that asteroid 2024 YR4 will collide with Earth.

Rising Impact Probability

On Feb. 7, NASA revised the initial impact odds of asteroid 2024 YR4, raising them:

• From 1.2% to 2.3%
• Then to 2.6%
• Now reaching 3.1%, according to the Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS)

Potential Consequences of an Impact

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to be 177 feet (54 meters) wide, roughly the height of the Leaning Tower of Pisa. While too small to cause global devastation, an impact could:

• Destroy an entire city
• Release 8 megatons of energy, over 500 times the force of the Hiroshima atomic bomb

Likelihood of a Near Miss

Despite the rising impact probability, the good news is:

• There is still a 96.9% chance that the asteroid will miss Earth entirely
• As more data is gathered, scientists expect the probability to decline to 0%
• There is also a 0.3% chance that the asteroid will strike the moon instead

How Scientists Measure Risk

NASA uses the Torino Scale to assess the threat level of asteroids and comets. Asteroid 2024 YR4 currently holds a Torino Scale rating of 3 out of 10, meaning it has:

• A greater than 1% chance of impact
• The potential for localized destruction

While concerns remain, ongoing observations and calculations should refine YR4’s trajectory, reducing uncertainty in the coming months.