The Blubber

After two months of tracking, scientists have nearly ruled out any risk from asteroid 2024 YR4, NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) confirmed on Tuesday.

Initially, the asteroid was considered a potential threat, with a roughly 3% chance of striking Earth in 2032—placing it at the top of global asteroid risk lists.

However, ESA has now lowered the probability to just 0.001%, while NASA’s latest calculations put the odds at 0.0017%. This means the asteroid will safely pass Earth in 2032, and there is no risk of impact for at least the next century.

No Chance of Impact on Earth

Paul Chodas, director of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, confirmed that the impact risk for Earth has been fully ruled out.

"That’s the outcome we expected all along, although we couldn’t be 100% sure until now," Chodas said in an email.

Small Chance of a Moon Impact

While Earth is in the clear, NASA estimates a 1.7% chance that the asteroid could strike the moon on December 22, 2032. However, Chodas expects that probability to decrease as well with further observations.

Continued Observations

Telescopes around the world will continue tracking 2024 YR4 as it moves away from Earth. Next month, the James Webb Space Telescope will take a closer look to refine estimates of the asteroid’s size. It is expected to disappear from view within the next couple of months.

A Valuable Learning Opportunity

Discovered in December, 2024 YR4 is estimated to measure between 130 and 300 feet (40–90 meters) across and completes an orbit around the Sun every four years.

"While this asteroid no longer poses a significant threat, it provided an invaluable opportunity for study," NASA said in a statement.