Goldman Sachs increases 12-month US recession probability by 10%, now at 35%

Per WSJ

Goldman Sachs has reportedly increased its estimations of whether a recession would hit the United States in the next 12 months. Previously, the firm estimated that the probability sat at just 25%, but now, it estimates that the probability of a recession in the next 12 months is at 35%.

Just a month ago, the opposite was done, with Goldman Sachs decreasing the likelihood of a US recession in the next 12 months from 35% to 25%. Per Bloomberg, the estimation by Goldman Sachs is way lower compared to the 60% median forecast by other economists that they surveyed.

Per Forbes, the new estimations by Goldman Sachs were due to the recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the widespread concerns of how it could potentially impact the larger banking sector. The firm maintained that a recession was still unlikely due to the labor market strength as well as signs of improvement per business surveys.

Despite firms, banks, businesses, and analysts having different takes on the likelihood of a recession, US President Biden said that the risk of a recession was very low. This was a shift in previous statements made in November where he said that the country was nowhere near a recession.

Biden previously said that his economic plan was showing results and that Americans could see that the country was in a position of strength when facing global economic challenges. Before his November statements, in October, the US President said that if a recession happened, it would be "very slight."

One of the banks that strongly believe that a recession could happen is the Bank of Montreal, saying that the likelihood was at 99.9% of it happening in 2024, according to Earl Davis, the firm's Managing Director. Davis noted that the playbook suggests that "a recession could be next."

See flow at unusualwhales.com/flow.

Other News:

Resources:

The Wall Street Journal

Goldman Sachs

Bloomberg

Forbes

Unusual Whales does not confirm the information's truthfulness or accuracy of the associated references, data, and cannot verify any of the information. Any content on this site or related pages are not intended to provide legal, tax, investment or insurance advice. Unusual Whales Inc. is not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) or any state securities regulatory authority. Nothing on Unusual Whales should be construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security by Unusual Whales or any third party. Options, investing, trading is risky, and losses are more expected than profits. Please do own research before investing. Please only subscribe after reading our full terms and understanding options and the market, and the inherent risks of trading. It is highly recommended not to trade on this, or any, information from Unusual Whales. Markets are risky, and you will likely lose some or all of your capital. Please check our terms for full details.
Any content on this site or related pages are not intended to provide legal, tax, investment or insurance advice. Unusual Whales Inc. is not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) or any state securities regulatory authority. Nothing on Unusual Whales should be construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security by Unusual Whales or any third party. Certain investment planning tools available on Unusual Whales may provide general investment education based on your input. You are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, investment strategy, security or related transaction is appropriate for you based on your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances and risk tolerance. You should consult your legal or tax professional regarding your specific situation. See terms for more information.