The Blubber

Trump’s stock market is generating some eye-popping numbers — and the comparisons now stretch back nearly a century.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped 9.1% in just the first three weeks of April, marking its worst April performance since 1932. The only other April to perform worse? April 1931.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has fallen 14% during Trump’s current term — the steepest decline through April 21 of any U.S. president since records began in 1928, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

Even with a more than 2% gain across major indexes on Tuesday, Trump has significant ground to recover if he’s to avoid making history. The next-worst 63-day start to a presidential term occurred under Franklin Roosevelt in 1941, when markets fell just over 9%.

Dollar Weakness

The U.S. dollar has also been under pressure. Since the start of Trump’s second term, the dollar has slid 5.5% — the worst performance at this point in a presidency since data began in 1974 under Gerald Ford. The only other term that comes close? Trump’s first, when the dollar lost 3% in the same span. On Monday, the dollar hit a three-year low.

Treasury Market Unsettled

Unlike typical downturns when investors rush into the safety of U.S. government bonds, Treasuries are being sold off. The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 4.4%, up from below 4% just a month ago — an unusually fast jump.

Global Reallocation

As U.S. assets falter, investors are looking abroad. The MSCI All World index excluding the U.S. is up 2.9% since Trump’s second term began — matching the early run of Joe Biden’s presidency and not far off Trump’s own first-term start, when U.S. stocks were also climbing.

Oil Slump

Crude oil has suffered its worst start under a new president since Bill Clinton’s second term in 1997. So far under Trump’s second term, oil is down 19% as traders brace for a global economic slowdown. In 1997, oil lost 24% early on in Clinton’s second term.

Gold Soars

In contrast, gold has surged above $3,500 an ounce — setting a fresh record. The precious metal is up nearly 25% during Trump’s second term, far surpassing the previous record rise of 13.5% during Jimmy Carter’s early days in 1977.

What’s Driving the Chaos?

The global economy is reeling from the Trump administration’s escalating trade war, the International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday.

“We are entering a new era as the global economic system that has operated for the last 80 years is being reset,” the IMF said in a report predicting slower global growth and renewed inflation — particularly in the U.S.

The combination of weakening growth and accelerating prices is a difficult one to manage. While analysts don’t yet expect a return to 1970s-style stagflation, the dramatic overhaul of global trade norms is sowing deep uncertainty.

The IMF specifically pointed to Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement on April 2 — which imposed 10% tariffs across the board and introduced additional retaliatory tariffs that have since been temporarily paused — as a turning point that forced them to revise forecasts.

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon echoed those concerns on CNBC, saying that Trump’s unpredictable policy shifts have made it harder for businesses to plan.

“The level of uncertainty is too high. It’s not productive,” Solomon said. “It will affect economic growth, and I believe we’ll start to see that quite soon.”