The Blubber

Treasury Secretary Bessent: "No Guarantees" Against a Recession

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized that there are "no guarantees" when it comes to avoiding a recession, during an interview on NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday.

NBC's Kristen Welker directly asked Bessent, “Can you guarantee the American people here and now that there will be no recession on President Trump’s watch?”

Bessent replied, “You know that... there are no guarantees. Like, who — who would've predicted COVID?” He later added, “I can predict that we’re putting in robust policies that will be durable. Could there be an adjustment? Yes, because this massive government spending we’ve had — if that had kept going, we’d need to wean our country off of that.”

Market Concerns and Recession Fears

Bessent's remarks came after a turbulent week for the stock market, marked by significant losses. On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 890 points (a 2.1% drop), triggering heightened discussions about a potential recession.

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers added to the conversation, suggesting on the social platform X that the chances of a recession are "close to 50/50."

“I think there is a real possibility of a recession,” Summers posted. “A couple of months ago, I would have said a recession was really unlikely this year. Now, it's probably not 50/50, but getting close. The reason? Economic policies that are completely counterproductive.”

Stocks have been on a downward trend since the start of the month due to disappointing economic data and unpredictable tariff announcements from the Trump administration, with Monday’s sell-off intensifying concerns.

Bessent's Market Outlook

Despite the market turbulence, Bessent expressed confidence on "Meet the Press," stating, “I’m not worried about the markets.”

“Corrections are healthy, they’re normal,” he explained. “What’s not healthy is a straight-up, euphoric market. That’s how you get a financial crisis.”

Reflecting on past crises, Bessent noted, “It would’ve been much healthier if someone had put the brakes on in ‘06, ‘07. We wouldn’t have had the problems in ‘08.”

While Bessent remains optimistic about the resilience of the economy, the uncertainty around a possible recession looms large, raising questions about the stability of the market and the broader economic outlook.