The Blubber

The CNBC All-America Economic Survey reveals that former President Donald Trump holds a significant lead over Vice President Kamala Harris on key economic issues, but only has a narrow 2-point edge in the head-to-head race for the White House.

Following President Joe Biden's replacement by Harris, an assassination attempt on Trump, and the Republican convention, Trump's lead stands at 48%-46%, which falls within the survey’s margin of error and is unchanged from the 45%-43% lead he had over Biden in the NBC News July survey. Despite the tight head-to-head competition, significant but balancing shifts beneath the surface have kept the race close.

The most notable change is that 81% of Democrats are satisfied with Harris as the nominee, compared to just 33% who were satisfied with Biden. This is partially counterbalanced by a 9-point increase in Republican satisfaction with Trump as the nominee, now at 80%.

Interest in the election has risen by 3 points among Democrats and 2 points among Republicans. Young voters show stronger support for Harris than Biden, backing the vice president by 10 points now, compared to a 2-point backing for Trump in the NBC July poll. However, Trump has gained 12 points among voters aged 35-49, who now support him by 9 points. Harris’ net approval rating improved from -15 in the July NBC survey to -8, while Trump’s rating improved similarly to -9.

Shifting Focus

“It is less a referendum on Trump now and more a direct competition between the two candidates,” said Micah Roberts, a partner at Public Opinion Strategies and the Republican pollster for the survey.

Jay Campbell, a partner at Hart Research and the Democratic pollster, led the survey.

Overall, the race remains close. Both candidates have solidified their support within their parties, but neither has made significant gains among swing voters who will ultimately determine the presidency.