The Blubber

Earlier this month, Brigadier General Doug Wickert of the U.S. Air Force gathered local civic leaders at Edwards Air Force Base in California to deliver a sobering message: if China launches an assault on Taiwan in the near future, the surrounding region should brace for immediate and significant disruption.

In a highly unusual briefing shared via the base’s social media channels and highlighted in an official press release, Wickert — a veteran test pilot now leading the 412th Test Wing — detailed the scale and speed of China’s military buildup and its apparent readiness for high-intensity conflict.

Central to his warning was the strategic importance of cutting-edge American aircraft produced in California’s “Aerospace Valley,” including the B-21 Raider stealth bomber, which is set to replace the aging B-2 fleet. Wickert emphasized that these systems are critical to maintaining deterrence against Beijing. But should that deterrence fail, he warned, U.S. soil — including local aerospace production sites like Northrop Grumman’s — would be among China’s early targets.

“If this war happens, it’s going to happen here,” Wickert told the group, pointing to the possibility of cyberattacks and prolonged infrastructure disruptions, such as power outages. “It’s going to reach us. That’s why we’re having this conversation... The better prepared we are, the more likely we can influence Chairman Xi’s decision-making.”

U.S. intelligence and defense officials have repeatedly indicated that Chinese President Xi Jinping has directed his military to be ready for a possible invasion of Taiwan by 2027, though they note no final decision has been made.

As tensions mount, both the U.S. and China have accelerated military preparations at a scale not seen in decades — posturing that has itself become a strategic signal.

Chinese officials continue to reject claims of a firm invasion timeline, but Beijing has grown increasingly vocal in asserting its sovereignty over Taiwan, which has been governed independently since the Nationalists relocated there in 1949 following their defeat in the Chinese Civil War.

Since the U.S. formally recognized the People's Republic of China in 1979, it has maintained a deliberately ambiguous stance on whether it would defend Taiwan, in line with the Taiwan Relations Act. That legislation commits the U.S. to maintain military readiness to resist any forceful attempt by Beijing to alter the status quo.

While former President Donald Trump avoided making a clear pledge, President Joe Biden has gone further than his recent predecessors by publicly stating the U.S. would defend Taiwan if attacked. Meanwhile, a recently leaked Pentagon strategy document confirmed that deterring Chinese aggression toward Taiwan is now its top defense priority.