The Blubber

US President Donald Trump suggested that Ukraine "may be Russian someday," casting doubt on the future independence of a nation that has fought against Moscow’s full-scale invasion for nearly three years with strong Western support.

Trump spoke about his administration’s effort to end the conflict during a Fox News interview that aired Monday. His comments come ahead of a planned meeting between his vice president, JD Vance, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky later this week.

“They may make a deal, they may not make a deal. They may be Russian someday, or they may not be Russian someday,” Trump said. He also emphasized the need for a return on U.S. aid to Ukraine, again suggesting a trade for Kyiv’s rare earth minerals.

Trump’s remarks are likely to be welcomed by the Kremlin, which has illegally annexed four Ukrainian regions since launching its invasion and remains intent on fully subjugating Ukraine.

“A significant part of Ukraine wants to become Russia, and the fact that it has already become Russia is undeniable,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday when asked about Trump’s comments.

Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 aimed to capture Kyiv within days and the entire country in weeks. However, nearly three years later, Moscow controls about one-fifth of Ukraine. In 2023, Russia held a sham referendum in four occupied regions—Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson—in an attempt to legitimize its annexation. International observers widely dismissed the referendum as a propaganda exercise.

Peskov claimed that people “stood in line and voted” in the referendum despite many dangers. “This largely corresponds to President Trump’s words,” he added.

In his Fox News interview, Trump said his administration had made “tremendous progress” in setting the stage for potential peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Zelensky confirmed Monday that senior Trump administration officials would visit Ukraine ahead of the Munich Security Conference in Germany, where he is scheduled to meet with Vance.

Trump reiterated his focus on securing a return for U.S. assistance to Kyiv. “They have tremendously valuable land in terms of rare earth, oil, gas, and other things. I want our money secured,” Trump said.

“I told them I want the equivalent of $500 billion worth of rare earth, and they’ve essentially agreed. At least we don’t feel stupid—otherwise, we’re stupid. I said we have to get something; we can’t just keep giving money,” he added.

While the Biden administration has framed its support for Kyiv as a defense of democracy and territorial integrity, Trump’s comments reflect a more transactional approach to geopolitics.

Trump’s remarks are likely to bolster Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has repeatedly claimed that Ukraine is not a sovereign state and that Russians and Ukrainians are “one people.”

As European leaders prepare to meet with senior members of the Trump administration in Munich this week, Polish President Andrzej Duda underscored that Russia “cannot benefit” from its war in Ukraine and must not emerge victorious.

Speaking to CNN at the World Government Summit in Dubai, Duda said the “perfect scenario” would be for Ukraine to regain all occupied territory. However, he conceded that the priority is to stop the war, but not under “Russian conditions.”