The Result Is Now Official
Benjamin Netanyahu has officially lost his majority in Israel's election, as Israel's Central Elections Committee has certified the results of last week's general election.
The committee certified the results after finding no evidence of fraud, closing off the last procedural route for disputing the outcome.
The certification means coalition negotiations to form a new government in Jerusalem now begin in earnest, with Netanyahu's bloc short of the seats needed to govern.
A Wartime Government Falls
The result lands in the middle of the war with Iran, which Israel and the United States opened with strikes on February 28, 2026 and which has now run for more than eight months.
Netanyahu led Israel through the entire conflict. His government falling while operations continue raises immediate questions about command continuity, war aims, and who in Jerusalem will make decisions on escalation or negotiation in the weeks ahead.
In the United States, Vice President JD Vance has already cited the GOP's relationship with Israel as one of the reasons Republicans lost the midterms, so the change in Israel arrives at the same moment Washington's own politics on the war are shifting.
What Comes Next in Jerusalem
Coalition talks in Israel can take weeks, and an incoming government could range from broadly similar on security policy to openly committed to ending the war.
Until a new coalition is seated, Netanyahu remains in a caretaker role, which typically constrains major new military or diplomatic moves even as the conflict continues day to day.
Markets will be watching the coalition arithmetic for any party whose price for joining includes a change in war policy, because that is the single biggest variable for energy prices in the region.
Options and Market Impact
Israel's political transition is, for traders, primarily an energy and defense story. Any signal that a new government favors de-escalation would weigh on the war premium in crude, while a hardline coalition would support it.
US defense names with direct exposure to Israeli operations and missile defense remain the most direct trade, led by RTX and Lockheed Martin, both of which supply systems central to Israel's air and missile defense.
The broad tape via SPY will also react to coalition headlines, since the market has treated every development in this war as an oil price event first and a political event second.
Bottom Line
With the results certified and no fraud found, Netanyahu's loss of his majority is final. Israel now has to build a new government in wartime, and the coalition that emerges will help decide how, and how long, the Iran conflict continues.
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