2022 has been the worst year for 10Y US treasuries since 1788

11/1/2022

Per MarketWatch:

Benchmark U.S. Treasury bonds are facing their worst annual returns since 1788, but a big bounce is likely in the new year, along with a stock rout.

That’s according to a team of strategists at Bank of America led by Michael Hartnett, who looked at 250 years of history to conclude that bonds are headed for positive returns in 2023, as markets pivot from “uber-bearish ‘inflation shock’ and rates shock'” to expectations for a recession.

A chart from the strategists show 10-year Treasury notes have lost an annualized 23% year to date, and are set for a second straight annual loss. The last time investors saw such back-to-back losses was 1958 to 1959, said Hartnett. In addition, the asset class has never experienced three straight years of losses, and the last time it saw a more than 5% loss was followed by a positive return in 1861, according to the bank.

See Treasury data: unusualwhales.com/alt-data

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