The Blubber

Mortgage rates generally follow the movements of Treasury yields, which have been decreasing in anticipation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates as early as September. Minutes from the Fed's July meeting revealed that several officials believed there was a case for lowering rates, with Chair Jerome Powell affirming last Friday that "the time has come for policy to adjust."

US mortgage rates experienced another decline last week, reaching their lowest point since April 2023. This slight dip has led to a modest increase in home-purchase applications, following a significant drop in the previous week.

The contract rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage dropped for the fourth consecutive week, settling at 6.44%, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). This marks the longest stretch of declines this year, offering some relief for prospective homebuyers during the week ending August 23.

Although the decline in borrowing costs is expected to provide a spark to the housing market, ongoing affordability challenges—largely driven by high home prices—are still keeping many potential buyers on the sidelines.

The MBA has been conducting its weekly mortgage survey since 1990, gathering data from mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. The survey covers more than 75% of all retail residential mortgage applications in the United States.