The Blubber

Immigrant workers will become the sole source of U.S. labor force growth after 2052, according to recent research by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP). The report suggests that the number of Americans in prime working age will level off much sooner, with implications for U.S. economic growth and living standards if immigration doesn’t help sustain the labor force. Economists like Pia Orrenius and Chloe Smith from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas have pointed out that economic growth relies on “growth in the labor force and its productivity,” meaning businesses can’t expand without available workers, and consumers feel the strain when goods and services fall short due to labor shortages.

The Critical Role of Immigrant Workers in the U.S. Labor Force

In the past five years, just 479,000 U.S.-born workers joined the labor force, compared to 3.6 million foreign-born workers, the NFAP report states, using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Census. This indicates that immigrant workers accounted for 88% of labor force growth since 2019.

Labor force expansion is fundamental to economic growth, Orrenius and Smith affirmed in a recent statement, noting that economic growth drives up living standards. According to a July 2024 Dallas Fed analysis, “Because economic growth depends on labor, capital, and productivity, growth in these factors will set the economy’s speed limit.” While productivity can be boosted by technology and investment, the analysis states, immigration will be essential for supporting labor force growth.