The Blubber

The intensifying trade war between the United States and nearly all of its major trading partners has triggered a wave of predictions and warnings that a global recession may be imminent.

Economists speaking with CBC News say a downturn is virtually unavoidable unless the U.S. makes a significant course correction soon.

"I don't see how we avoid it," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, during an appearance on CBC News's Power & Politics on Monday.

"This is a very bleak scenario, both for the U.S. and, by extension, for Canada and the broader global economy."

Following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping new global tariffs last week, brokerage firm J.P. Morgan raised its estimate for the likelihood of a global recession to 60 per cent, up from 40 per cent at the end of March.

"We haven't seen this type of tariff-driven trade war in a hundred years," said Moshe Lander, senior lecturer of economics at Concordia University, pointing to the U.S. tariffs implemented after the 1929 stock market crash.

Those tariffs backfired spectacularly when other countries retaliated, he added.

‘Entering one as we speak’ A recession is generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. In a global recession, multiple major economies would experience contractions at the same time, explained Tu Nguyen, an economist with RSM Canada.

There’s no exact rule for how many economies must be impacted to declare a global recession, Nguyen said, but with giants like China and the European Union grappling with trade turmoil caused by U.S. tariffs, the warning signs are flashing.

"If the U.S. does not shift its policy on tariffs… we expect a recession to be officially recognized within the next six months," Nguyen said.

"In fact, it’s reasonable to suggest we are entering one right now."

Zandi warned that if Trump does not find an "off-ramp," the U.S. could start to experience the effects of a recession as early as June or July.

The standoff between the U.S. and China—the two largest economies in the world by a wide margin—is one of the most significant risks, he noted.