The Blubber

A second war could erupt in Europe between Serbia and Kosovo, per CNBC.


Meanwhile, tensions have heightened in another part of Europe, which remains exceptionally volatile after a brutal and intricate conflict in the 1990s.

Analysts express apprehension over the escalating hostilities between Serbia and Kosovo, historically strained, with recent months witnessing increased hostility. September witnessed violence erupting in northern Kosovo, prompting a military buildup by Belgrade along its border with its neighbor.

Amid the global focus on the war in Ukraine, concerns arise that the southeastern region of Europe could slide into armed conflict.

In the current political and security landscape, analysts emphasize that an outbreak of violence in northern Kosovo "should raise alarm bells."

“Resolving the dispute between Kosovo and Serbia is no longer just a political matter, but a serious security issue for the region and for Europe,” noted Engjellushe Morina and Majda Ruge, senior policy fellows at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

They stressed that the U.S. and EU face a critical choice, not just between the success or failure of dialogue but between stability and a potential escalation of violence. The latter, they argue, is more likely unless there is acknowledgment of Belgrade's role in destabilizing Kosovo and a robust approach is adopted to counter it.

Despite Serbia's denial of increased military mobilizations near the Kosovo border and assurances that there is no intention to invade, defense analysts characterize the situation as a tinderbox ready to ignite.

“From zero land wars in Europe, we could conceivably be looking at two very shortly,” warned Ian Bremmer, founder of the Eurasia Group. Drawing parallels to the recent conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, he highlighted the challenge to an unsustainable status quo, with the dominant military testing the waters for potential intervention.

“In this case, that’s NATO — less distracted than Russia, and much more likely to intervene directly — but the prospects of an invasion have gone way up over the past few days,” Bremmer stated.