The Blubber

The United States faces a 90% likelihood of falling into a recession in 2025 unless current trade strategies are revised, according to economists at Apollo.

The alert comes amid ongoing trade talks with roughly 90 countries, which have stalled international commerce and could set off supply chain disruptions, spikes in inflation, and a wave of small-business bankruptcies, said Torsten Slok, Apollo's chief economist, in a recent report.

“These issues resemble the disruptions we saw during the COVID period, but this time, it’s a policy-driven crisis,” Slok remarked.

He explained that trade deals typically require about 18 months to finalize, as negotiators sift through tariffs on thousands of goods — ranging from pharmaceuticals to lawn equipment — while also tackling labor protections, environmental standards, and rules around digital trade.

“We’re essentially revising the global trading system clause by clause,” Slok said. He criticized former President Donald Trump’s sudden tariff increases — from 3% to 18% — for overlooking this complexity.

Small businesses, which account for four out of every five American jobs, are especially vulnerable, Apollo noted. Unlike large corporations, they don’t have the financial cushion to absorb unexpected tariff hikes, leading to canceled orders and potential closures.

“Ships will be stuck offshore, and family-run stores could go under,” Slok warned. According to Apollo’s findings, small firms contribute about 85% of private-sector capital investment, which raises the stakes for the broader economy.

The anticipated tariff wave could shave nearly 4 percentage points off GDP in 2025 — a far deeper impact than the 0.25 to 0.7 percentage point decline during the 2018 U.S.-China trade war, based on studies from Brookings and the National Bureau of Economic Research.

“This isn’t simple arithmetic,” Slok emphasized. “Uncertainty will paralyze both consumer demand and business spending, amplifying economic damage.”

Apollo recommends exempting Canada and Mexico from the new tariffs and phasing in duties on non-essential Chinese imports over 18 to 24 months.

“If the terms aren’t revised, the U.S. will essentially walk into a self-imposed trade-driven recession,” Slok concluded.

With many small firms already cutting back on imports, Apollo economists caution that time is running out.