The Blubber

During the pandemic from 2019 to 2022, the US labor market experienced a significant shift with 8.6 million occupational transitions, a 50 percent increase compared to the previous three-year period. Many individuals moved away from occupations in food services, in-person sales, and office support, seeking opportunities in different fields.

Looking ahead to 2030, the rise of automation, particularly driven by generative AI, could potentially impact up to 30 percent of the current working hours in the US economy. However, it is expected that generative AI will enhance the work of professionals in STEM, creative industries, business, and legal fields, rather than leading to the outright elimination of numerous jobs. The brunt of automation's effects is more likely to be felt in other job categories, such as office support, customer service, and food services, where employment may continue to decline.

Federal investments addressing climate change and infrastructure, along with structural shifts, will also influence labor demand. The transition towards a net-zero economy will result in a shift away from traditional oil, gas, and automotive manufacturing jobs, leading to a modest net gain in employment within green industries. Infrastructure projects will drive demand in the construction sector, which is already facing a shortage of around 400,000 workers. The aging population will increase the demand for healthcare workers, while the growth of e-commerce will lead to gains in transportation services.

By 2030, an additional 12 million occupational transitions may be necessary. As individuals move away from shrinking occupations, the economy may shift towards higher-wage jobs. Workers in lower-wage positions are up to 14 times more likely to require occupational changes than those in higher-wage roles, and most will need additional skills to succeed in new fields. Women are 1.5 times more likely than men to undergo such occupational transitions.

To meet the challenges posed by these changes, the United States will need a far larger-scale approach to workforce development. Employers will need to shift their hiring practices to focus on skills and competencies rather than just credentials. They should also consider recruiting from often overlooked populations, such as rural workers and individuals with disabilities, and provide ongoing training that keeps up with evolving needs.