The Blubber

Bitcoin could surge 300% to $120,000 next year as miners reduce token sales, per Standard Chartered.


In April, he projected that bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the next year, but he now considers that estimate might be too conservative, particularly when taking miner profitability into account.

"We reiterate our end-2024 BTC price target of around $100,000, with potential upside from reduced miner selling," he noted in a Monday report.

In a subsequent communication with Insider, Kendrick stated that a price of $120,000 is reasonable, indicating nearly a 300% increase from current levels. Additionally, he anticipates bitcoin to surge by 67% this year, reaching $50,000.

His more optimistic outlook is attributed to enhanced mining profitability, allowing miners to sell fewer tokens while maintaining the same cash flow. This reduction in bitcoin supply contributes to pushing prices higher, according to Kendrick.

He approximated that just under 100% of all mined bitcoin was sold in the second quarter, but he anticipates a decline in miner selling over time. This typically happens when bitcoin's price surpasses the average all-in cash cost of mining, as is currently occurring.

"If the BTC price averages $50,000 by Q1-2024, as we predict, the 'BTC minus all cash costs' calculation would rise to $30,000," he explained. "On that basis, selling just 27% of BTC mined in Q1-2024 would generate the same absolute level of excess cash as selling 100% in Q2-2023."

Effectively, this would be sufficient to decrease the net supply of bitcoin by around 250,000. This could not only exert pressure on prices but also impact the cryptocurrency's inflation rate, decreasing it from 1.7% to 0.4% year-to-year.

In recent weeks, bitcoin has rebounded above $30,000, driven partly by interest from major Wall Street players looking to establish their own bitcoin ETFs. This has led to other bullish predictions for the cryptocurrency, with Fundstrat's Tom Lee recently forecasting a valuation of $200,000 in the coming years.

Mining profitability has been on the rise as the cost of producing new bitcoin decreases. Major miners, such as Riot and Core Scientific, have trimmed corporate costs, and energy prices have also fallen. Additionally, halving events, which occur when the amount of bitcoin produced by mining is halved, tend to prompt industry consolidation, further reducing mining expenditures.