The Blubber

Just 25% of AI projects have delivered the expected return on investment (ROI) over the past three years, according to a new report from IBM, which surveyed 2,000 CEOs globally in the first quarter of 2025.

Still, despite the underwhelming results, business leaders remain optimistic about AI’s potential. A strong 85% expect a positive ROI from large-scale AI initiatives focused on efficiency and cost savings by 2027, while 77% anticipate gains from AI investments aimed at business growth and expansion.

IBM vice chairman Gary Cohn acknowledges the slow returns but says that should not be a reason to hesitate. In fact, he believes now is the time to double down.

“Right now, leaders who aren’t using AI and their own data to drive progress are actively choosing not to compete,” Cohn writes in the report. “As AI adoption continues to unlock new efficiencies and productivity gains, the biggest rewards will go to the CEOs willing to see risk as opportunity.”

Corporate enthusiasm for AI has been strong in recent years—from automating workflows and improving customer support to training workers and boosting output. But in practice, many companies are still struggling to make it all work. A Gallup poll from late 2024 found that only 15% of U.S. employees said their companies had clearly communicated an AI strategy.

Still, some experts think that current economic instability—fueled in part by President Donald Trump’s erratic tariff moves—may end up pushing companies to embrace AI faster. Historically, economic upheaval has often led to waves of innovation and tech adoption, including during the Great Depression, the Great Recession, and the COVID-19 pandemic.

“There’s a sense that maybe this is the moment we stop tinkering with AI and start putting it to real use to drive efficiencies,” said Constantine Alexandrakis, CEO of leadership advisory firm Russell Reynolds Associates, in a recent interview with Fortune.

He compared today’s thinking to the early days of the pandemic, when companies rushed to adopt digital tools to keep up. “CEOs are asking: ‘Can we use this moment to fast-track AI and help cut costs?’” he said.