The Blubber

A surge in Chinese equities since the beginning of the year is leading some investors to forecast that mainland stocks will outperform their U.S. counterparts — signaling that attractive valuations are beginning to outweigh the narrative of American exceptionalism.

Last week, the S&P 500 fell into correction territory for the first time since 2023. Meanwhile, the MSCI China Index has climbed 19% year-to-date as of March 9, according to Goldman Sachs, marking its strongest start to a year on record.

This divergence is a sharp reversal from just a few months ago, when many investors were convinced the U.S. was uniquely positioned to navigate the global economic and political landscape. At the same time, Chinese stocks were under pressure due to regulatory crackdowns and ongoing concerns about the country’s economic health.

A lot has changed since.

In the U.S., President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff policies have raised fears of a potential economic slowdown in the world’s largest economy. In contrast, investor sentiment in China has been boosted by growing optimism around the country’s artificial intelligence sector, particularly following the debut of DeepSeek’s R1 model earlier this year.

“The U.S. has had a good run, and that’s coming to an end because Trump’s policies are very anti-economy. China has had a very bad run, but it looks as if it’s beginning to recover,” said Richard Harris, CEO of Port Shelter Investment Management, in an interview with CNBC.

“I call it the great pivot,” Harris added. “Over the last 5 to 7 years, U.S. markets have dominated. The Magnificent Seven have gone to the moon … [But] it seems hard to believe there’s much more room to run.”

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has also entered correction territory, dragged down by a broader selloff in the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks — Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla — amid recession concerns and renewed fears of a trade war.

“The U.S. stock market’s capitalization, relative to global market cap, hit an all-time high at the end of last year — just as the narrative of ‘American exceptionalism’ peaked,” said Chris Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies Hong Kong Global.

Ken Wong, Asia equity portfolio specialist at Eastspring Investments, echoed the sentiment, saying that the trade based on American exceptionalism likely ended earlier this year. With anticipated fiscal tightening and the impact of Trump's tariff policies, Wong expects U.S. growth to slow below 2% in 2025 — down from consensus projections of 2.2%.