China's population has declined for second year running, per AP.
China's population decline has accelerated, marking a second consecutive year of record-low birth rates. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's total population decreased by 2.75 million, or 0.2%, reaching 1.409 billion in 2023. This decline exceeded the 2022 figure of approximately 850,000, marking the first recorded population drop since the Mao-era famines.
In 2023, total deaths increased by 6.6% to 11.1 million, reaching the highest level since the cultural revolution in 1974. Simultaneously, new births declined by 5.7% to 9.02 million, resulting in the lowest-ever recorded birthrate at 6.39 births per 1,000 people, down from 6.77 births in 2022.
China has grappled with demographic challenges, including an aging population, influenced by past population control policies such as the one-child policy and a reluctance among young adults to have children. In 2023, China was surpassed by India as the world's most populous nation, according to UN estimates.
Chinese officials are concerned about the economic implications of this demographic shift, particularly the rising costs of aged care and financial support amid a diminishing population of working taxpayers. The Chinese Academy of Sciences predicts that the pension system could run out of funds by 2035, with the number of people above 60 years old increasing from about 280 million to 400 million.
Despite various policies aimed at encouraging childbirth, many have not effectively addressed factors such as high living costs, limited support for women in the workforce, and traditional gender roles. The failure to boost birth rates raises concerns about the long-term impact on the economy and social dynamics.
On Tuesday, demographers proposed additional reforms to fertility support policies, and some expressed hope for a potential baby boom in 2024, driven by post-pandemic considerations or the desire for children born in the Chinese zodiac year of the dragon, starting in February. However, skepticism exists, with concerns about the challenges a one-year baby boom could pose for children navigating China's competitive college entrance exams.
