The Blubber

The prolonged trade tensions with the United States have left a lasting impact on Chinese exporters, many of whom are actively seeking to reduce their reliance on the U.S. market, despite recent temporary tariff relief, according to a private survey.

A poll conducted by trade insurer Allianz Trade, which surveyed 4,500 exporters across key global markets, found that 95% of Chinese respondents are either already shifting or planning to shift more of their exports toward non-U.S. destinations.

The report suggests that a continued economic “decoupling” between the U.S. and China remains a strong possibility in the medium term. Chinese firms are increasingly turning away from the American market, while U.S. companies accelerate efforts to relocate supply chains out of China.

A growing share of exporters also expect this year’s sales to take a hit from the steep U.S. tariffs, the report said.

Even after a temporary easing of tariffs agreed to during recent negotiations between Beijing and Washington in Switzerland, the average U.S. trade-weighted tariff on Chinese goods stands at 39%—well above the 13% level seen before the start of President Trump’s second term, according to Allianz Trade.

The short-term easing has triggered a surge in Chinese exports to the U.S., as companies rush to ship goods during the 90-day grace period, leading to a spike in shipping costs.

Exporters in Ningbo, a coastal manufacturing hub and home to China’s second-largest port after Shanghai, appear unfazed by the truce. Many are continuing with strategies to expand their global reach, according to Tianchen Xu, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

In a recent field report from Ningbo, Xu noted that businesses were especially interested in shifting operations to Southeast Asia, with Indonesia emerging as a leading destination for new investments. By contrast, attitudes toward Vietnam were mixed—while the country’s labor market remains attractive, rising operational costs are a growing concern.

Although the U.S. has recently finalized trade agreements with China and the United Kingdom, discussions with several longstanding trade partners have reportedly stalled.

Allianz Trade warns that the global economy could suffer a $305 billion decline in exports this year as a result of ongoing trade tensions.

By comparison, total global trade reached a record $33 trillion in 2024, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.