U.S. wholesale egg prices are breaking records as a worsening bird flu outbreak among laying hens reduces supply, coinciding with increased demand for holiday baking.
The surge in egg prices adds to the challenges faced by consumers already grappling with persistent inflation. Prices for other goods could also rise if President-elect Donald Trump implements proposed tariffs on imports from China and Mexico.
In the Midwest, wholesale prices for large eggs hit $5.57 per dozen on Wednesday, a 150% increase compared to last year and surpassing the previous record of $5.46 set in December 2022, according to commodity data firm Expana. Prices are even higher in California, where regulations banning the use of cages for hens have further constrained supply. There, eggs reached an unprecedented $8.85 per dozen.
While these soaring prices benefit farmers who have avoided bird flu outbreaks and are not bound by long-term contracts, consumers are feeling the pinch. The average retail price of a dozen eggs rose to over $3.60 in November, up from $2.50 at the start of the year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. September saw an even higher average at $3.80.
Potential for Further Increases
Retailers have been cautious about fully passing along higher costs to consumers, especially during the holiday season, but prices may rise further in the new year. Karyn Rispoli, managing editor for eggs at Expana, noted that retailers might adjust prices after the holidays.
As an early sign, Giant, a U.S. grocery chain owned by Ahold Delhaize, canceled a planned January promotion for eggs in the Washington and Baltimore markets due to uncertainty around costs, according to pricing director Erik Weenink. "We just don't know where costs are going to sit," he said.
Bird Flu’s Impact
The primary driver of rising egg prices is the damage to the laying hen population caused by bird flu. Since the current outbreak began in 2022, the virus has killed nearly 123 million chickens, turkeys, and other poultry across 49 states.
As of October, the U.S. laying hen population had dropped by 3% from the previous year to approximately 315 million birds, while egg production fell by 4%, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The USDA has revised its 2025 egg production and export forecasts downward while raising price projections.
“There’s not enough supply for the export markets, just like there isn’t enough for the U.S. market,” said Greg Tyler, CEO of the USA Poultry & Egg Export Council.
Human Cases and Vaccine Research
This year, bird flu has killed 35 million commercial egg-laying hens, with nearly half of those losses occurring in the past three months. In Iowa, the leading egg-producing state, workers recently began culling a flock of 4.2 million hens that tested positive for the virus.
“We’re in one of those windows where it’s just rampant,” Rispoli said.
Wild birds are known to spread the virus to poultry flocks, and outbreaks among cows have increased the risk of farm delivery trucks carrying the virus to poultry barns.
Human cases of bird flu remain rare, with 61 reported in 2023, mostly mild. However, the first severe case was confirmed this week in Louisiana.
The USDA has invested in vaccine research to protect poultry and cows from bird flu. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack told Reuters that funding is available for vaccine purchases and that continued support for vaccine development under the Trump administration would be logical.
