Humanoid robots may outgrow the auto industry in economic impact, said Morgan Stanley estimating that the market could swell to $5 trillion in annual revenue by mid-century as adoption will grow across industrial, commercial, and eventually at household use.
Morgan Stanley sees a billion of robots in use by 2050, with early adoption starting in the 2030s, generating annual revenues of $4.7 trillion, roughly double the combined sales of the world’s 20 largest automakers today.
Estimated number of human workers expected to be replaced by humanoid robots
4/30/2025
The shift will be gradual. By 2035, just 13 million humanoids may be in use, mostly in commercial and industrial settings, where tasks are repetitive and structured, according to the MS analysts.
Industrial and commercial deployments will continue the lead, making up more than 90% of the installed base by 2050.
Household adoption, where the chores and expectations are less predictable, due to cost, safety and regulatory hurdles.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Inc with its Optimus robot project, was named as a top potential winner due to its full-stack integration of hardware, software, and AI.
Morgan Stanley said robot integrators like Tesla that control the “brains, bodies, branding and ecosystems offer the highest value”
Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) were also called as major players in AI foundation models for robotics, with Nvidia’s Isaac platform and Google DeepMind’s Gemini Robotics as potential standards in the space.
Also Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Meta (NASDAQ:META) are seen as key “robot brain” developers.
Among the component makers, analysts name Harmonic (NASDAQ:HLIT) Drive Systems, Nabtesco, Nidec Corp (TYO:6594), and Keyence in Japan for their expertise in sensors, actuators, and gear reducers.
U.S based Rockwell Automation Inc (NYSE:ROK) and TE Connectivity Ltd (NYSE:TEL) were also listed as potential beneficiaries.
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