The Blubber

Europe’s leading military powers are developing plans to take on a larger role in the continent’s defense, including a proposal for a gradual transition of responsibilities from the United States over the next five to ten years.

The effort aims to prevent the disruption of a sudden U.S. withdrawal from NATO, a scenario that has become a growing concern following President Donald Trump’s repeated threats to weaken or exit the transatlantic alliance that has safeguarded Europe for nearly eight decades.

The UK, France, Germany, and Nordic nations are actively participating in these structured but informal discussions, according to four European officials involved. Their objective is to craft a comprehensive strategy that shifts the financial and military burden onto European nations and present it to the U.S. ahead of NATO’s annual leaders’ summit in The Hague in June.

The proposal would include firm commitments from European governments to increase defense spending and expand military capabilities, in hopes of persuading Trump to approve a phased transition that would allow the U.S. to redirect its strategic focus toward Asia.

Europe’s Reliance on U.S. Defense

The U.S. remains indispensable to European security, outspending all NATO allies combined. In addition to its nuclear deterrent—integrated with several European air forces that carry U.S. nuclear weapons—the U.S. provides advanced military capabilities, maintains key air, naval, and troop bases, and has approximately 80,000 troops stationed across Europe.

Since Trump’s election, countries such as Germany, France, and the UK have either increased or expedited planned defense spending, while the EU has introduced initiatives to accelerate military investments among member states.

However, officials estimate that it would take five to ten years of sustained investment to build European defense capabilities to a level where they could replace most U.S. contributions—excluding the American nuclear deterrent.

“Increasing spending is our only real option—shifting the burden away from reliance on the U.S.,” said one official. “We’re beginning those discussions, but the sheer scale of the task is overwhelming.”

Uncertainty Over U.S. Commitment

Despite reassurances from U.S. diplomats that Trump remains committed to NATO and its Article 5 mutual defense clause, European governments remain uneasy about the possibility of the White House scaling back troop deployments or reducing involvement in shared NATO missions.

Some European nations are reluctant to engage too deeply in these discussions, fearing that it might encourage the U.S. to accelerate its withdrawal. Others question whether the Trump administration would even commit to a structured transition, given its unpredictable approach to foreign policy.

“You need an agreement with the Americans,” one official noted. “But the real question is—can you trust them to stick to it?”