The Blubber

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Tuesday that he cannot rule out the possibility of a rate hike as the next move from the central bank.

"The bar to raising is quite high, but it is not infinite," Kashkari said during a talk at the Milken Institute 2024 Global Conference in Beverly Hills, Calif.

Kashkari mentioned that he would support a hike if inflation starts to appear entrenched, but quickly added that a rate hike was not his base case.

He stated that the most probable scenario would be for the Fed to "stay put for an extended period of time" and continue to keep rates at the current 5.25%-5.5% level "and allow them to have an impact."

The Fed has maintained rates at this level since last July.

In an essay published earlier on Tuesday, Kashkari stated that the biggest question facing the U.S. central bank is whether inflation will continue its downward trajectory or stabilize at around a 3% level, which might necessitate further tightening of monetary policy.

If inflation has indeed stalled, it implies that the Fed "has more work to do," Kashkari noted.

Kashkari stated that he had initially penciled in two rate cuts for this year in the "dot plot" prepared for the Fed's March meeting. He expressed uncertainty about where his dot would be in June, suggesting that he might pencil in two, one, or no moves.

"My colleagues and I are, of course, very pleased that the labor market has proven resilient, but with inflation moving sideways in the most recent quarter, it raises questions about the true restrictiveness of policy," he said.

Kashkari also remarked on the April job report, which showed job growth slowing to a six-month low of 175,000, stating that it was "not a weak report" and that the economy seemed to be in a "good place" with steady growth.

He noted that in the past, when the Fed significantly tightened monetary policy, the housing market suffered. However, in this cycle, residential investment has grown by 5% over the past year, according to Kashkari, raising a series of questions.

One of the most critical questions is whether the Fed has misjudged the tightness of its policy. The Fed has raised its benchmark interest rate to well above the 2.6% rate that marks the Fed's formal estimate of "neutral," indicating that it will not dampen or accelerate demand.