The Blubber

Trump’s ‘America First’ Policies Dampen International Travel to the U.S.

International tourism to the U.S. is taking a major hit, with visits expected to drop by 5.1% this year instead of rising, according to a new forecast from research firm Tourism Economics. The firm had previously projected an 8.8% increase in travel but has since reversed its outlook.

The shift is expected to have a significant economic impact, with foreign tourist spending projected to plunge 11%—a loss of $18 billion in 2024.

Tariffs, Trade Tensions, and Global Backlash Weigh on Travel

Tourism Economics cites President Donald Trump’s tariffs, shifting foreign policy, and “polarizing” rhetoric as key factors discouraging international travelers from visiting the U.S. The administration’s trade war and economic disputes with major global partners are also slowing economic growth abroad, weakening foreign currencies, and making trips to the U.S. more expensive.

“In key origin markets, a situation with polarizing Trump Administration policies and rhetoric, accompanied by economic losses to nationally important industries, small businesses, and households, will discourage travel to the U.S.,” the report states. “Some organizations will feel pressure to avoid hosting events in the U.S. or sending employees for business travel.”

In an emailed statement to Fortune, Tourism Economics President Adam Sacks warned that the 5.1% decline could worsen as the situation continues to deteriorate.

Sharp Decline in Canadian Visitors

One of the hardest-hit markets is Canada, where Trump’s tariffs and tensions have contributed to a decline in travel.

• Canadian car trips returning from the U.S. dropped 24% in February compared to the previous year.
• Overall travel from Canada to the U.S. is expected to fall by 15% in 2024.
• Trump’s reported comments suggesting Canada should become the 51st U.S. state have also fueled tensions.

Concerns from Mexico and Western Europe

The report also highlights concerns over Trump’s immigration crackdown, which could deter potential travelers from Mexico.

Meanwhile, Western Europe—responsible for over a third of foreign tourism to the U.S.—is another vulnerable region.

• The administration’s alignment with Russia in the Ukraine war has negatively affected sentiment toward the U.S. in Europe.
• Tariffs on European goods have also created economic strains that could reduce travel demand.

Global Travel to the U.S. Already Declining

Separate data reveals that the number of foreign visitors to the U.S. fell 2.4% last month compared to the previous year.

• Travel from Africa sank 9%
• Visits from Central America fell 6%
• Tourism from Asia dropped 7%, with travel from China falling sharply

As economic and political factors continue to shape global perceptions of the U.S., the nation’s tourism industry is bracing for further declines.