The Blubber

Gold could soar 25% in the next 18 months as Middle East tensions and Fed easing boost the precious metal, Citi, $C, has said.

Citi predicts that the price of gold will surge by 25%, driven by increased tensions in the Middle East and the expectation of looser monetary policy. Despite a slight dip on Tuesday from its recent peak above $2,400 per ounce, Citi's strategists, led by Aakash Doshi, believe that the momentum for gold is still strong.

In a note to clients on Monday, Doshi stated that Citi foresees gold surpassing $3,000 per ounce within the next six to 18 months, marking a 25% increase from its current levels. The bank has upgraded its 2024 price target for gold to $2,350 and adjusted its 2025 forecast to $2,875. They also anticipate that gold trading will regularly test and surpass the $2,500 per ounce mark in the latter part of 2024.

Doshi explained that the recent surge in gold prices has been fueled by geopolitical tensions and has coincided with record-high equity index levels, suggesting that a more risk-averse environment could further drive up gold prices.

Tensions in the Middle East, highlighted by Iran's strike against Israel, have heightened concerns about escalating conflict in the region. This, coupled with increased demand for safe-haven assets, has boosted gold's appeal.

Despite a rise in real and nominal yields, a more hawkish monetary policy stance, and a strengthening US dollar, gold has continued to rise. Citi believes that an eventual cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve, along with a rally in Treasury bonds, could provide further support for gold, potentially pushing its price to $3,000 per ounce.

Although the Fed has hinted at rate cuts this year, March's higher-than-expected inflation has likely delayed the timing of these cuts to later in the year. However, Citi notes that post-pandemic buying, particularly from China and developed markets, has resulted in significant inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds, which could support gold's path towards $3,000 per ounce.

While Citi sees the possibility of a price pullback around May or June, they expect strong buying support to emerge around the $2,200 threshold.