The Blubber

Housing market affordability is so bad that Zillow says it will take you 13.5 years to break even on a purchase from July onward, per Fortune.

The current state of the housing market is characterized by exceptionally low affordability and accessibility. Mortgage rates surged to 8% this autumn, while home prices continued to climb. Despite these unfavorable conditions, homes are still being sold daily, with new buyers making substantial down payments and committing to historically high mortgage payments. Zillow conducted an analysis to assess the extent of the affordability crisis and found that, under these market conditions, it would take an exceptionally long time for homeowners to break even.

Many people are not purchasing homes because they are enthusiastic about entering an unaffordable market, but rather to bolster their financial stability in the future. Essentially, they aim to become homeowners as soon as possible to start building equity in their starter homes, allowing them to eventually afford better properties. However, Zillow's analysis reveals that the housing market has become so imbalanced that homeowners now require significantly more time to sell their homes at a profit.

According to Zillow's analysis, new homebuyers can anticipate spending approximately 13.5 years in their homes before breaking even on their investments. The analysis considered typical and projected increases in home values based on the Zillow Home Value Index, as well as assumptions regarding closing costs, agent fees at the time of sale, maintenance expenses, and interest payments. These estimates are based on market conditions as of July, when mortgage rates had exceeded 7%.

"As mortgage rates approach 8% and home prices stabilize, it now takes longer to break even on a home purchase when considering the cost of interest," noted Nicole Bachaud, a senior economist at Zillow.

Although Zillow lacks historical data on breakeven durations, real estate experts and resources typically suggest that homeowners typically break even on their property within around four to six years. The prospect of extending this timeline to well over a decade may come as a shock to potential homebuyers.