The Blubber

The U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than initially reported for the 12-month period ending in March 2024, according to a Labor Department announcement on Wednesday. This revision, part of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) preliminary annual benchmark adjustments, revealed that job growth was nearly 30% lower than the originally reported 2.9 million jobs between April 2023 and March 2024.

The revised figure represents a -0.5% adjustment to total payroll levels, marking the largest downward revision since 2009. Although the BLS routinely updates job numbers on a monthly basis, this broader annual revision is based on more comprehensive data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.

Many economists and Wall Street analysts had anticipated a significant downward revision, and the report has confirmed those expectations. Even with the adjustments, job creation during the period still exceeded 2 million, though the revised numbers suggest that the labor market may not have been as robust as earlier reports indicated. This could increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider lowering interest rates in response to a softer labor market.

"The labor market appears weaker than originally reported," noted Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. "A deteriorating labor market will allow the Fed to focus on both sides of its dual mandate, and investors should expect the Fed to prepare markets for a potential rate cut at the September meeting."

At the sector level, professional and business services saw the largest downward revision, with job growth reduced by 358,000. Other sectors with notable downward adjustments included leisure and hospitality (-150,000), manufacturing (-115,000), and trade, transportation, and utilities (-104,000).

The revisions offer a more tempered view of the U.S. labor market and may signal a turning point in economic policy as the Federal Reserve evaluates its next steps.