JPMorgan Chase's chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon, says a “hard landing” for the U.S. cannot be ruled out.
When asked by CNBC’s Sri Jegarajah about the prospect of a hard landing, Dimon replied: “Could we actually see one? Of course, how could anyone who reads history say there’s no chance?”
Dimon was speaking at the JPMorgan Global China Summit in Shanghai.
Dimon said the worst outcome for the U.S. economy would be a “stagflation” scenario, where inflation continues to rise while growth slows and high unemployment persists.
“I look at the range of outcomes and again, the worst outcome for all of us is what you call stagflation—higher rates, recession. That means corporate profits will go down and we’ll get through all of that. I mean, the world has survived that, but I just think the odds are higher than other people think.”
However, Dimon noted that “the consumer is still in good shape” even if the economy slips into recession.
He pointed to the unemployment rate, which has been below 4% for about two years, and added that wages, home prices, and stock prices have been rising.
That said, Dimon also pointed out that consumer confidence levels are low. “It seems to be mostly because of inflation. ...The extra money from Covid has been coming down. It’s still there, you know, at the bottom 50% it’s kind of gone. So I’m going to call it normal, not bad.”
Minutes from the Fed’s May meeting released Wednesday showed that policymakers have grown more concerned about inflation, with members of the Federal Open Market Committee indicating they lacked confidence to ease monetary policy and cut rates.
Timing of Fed cuts
Dimon said interest rates could still go up “a little bit.”
“I think inflation is stickier than people think. I think the odds are higher than other people think, mostly because the huge amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus is still in the system, and still maybe driving some of this liquidity.”
Is the world prepared for higher inflation? “Not really,” he warned.
