The Blubber

McDonald's, $MCD, Big Macs now cost 10% more than in December 2020.

US CPI at 3.2% vs 3.3% expected.


In October, inflation showed no change compared to the previous month, offering a hopeful indication that the persistent high prices in the U.S. economy might be loosening their grip and potentially signaling to the Federal Reserve that it can halt its interest rate hikes.

According to seasonally adjusted figures from the Labor Department on Tuesday, the consumer price index (CPI), which gauges a broad array of commonly used goods and services, rose by 3.2% from a year ago, despite remaining unchanged for the month. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had anticipated respective readings of 0.1% and 3.3%.

The headline CPI had experienced a 0.4% increase in September.

Excluding the impact of volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI saw a 0.2% increase and registered at 4%, compared to the forecast of 0.3% and 4.1%. Although the annual level marked the lowest in two years, down from September's 4.1%, it still exceeded the Federal Reserve's 2% target. However, Federal Reserve officials have emphasized the desire to observe a series of declines in core readings, a trend that has been evident since April.

Market reactions were notable following this development. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by nearly 500 points, accompanied by a significant drop in Treasury yields. CME Group data indicated that traders largely removed the possibility of additional Fed rate hikes.

"The Fed looks smart for effectively ending its tightening cycle as inflation continues to slow. Yields are down significantly as the last of investors not convinced the Fed is done are likely throwing in the towel," remarked Bryce Doty, a portfolio manager at Sit Fixed Income Advisors. The unchanged headline CPI reading was attributed to a 2.5% decline in energy prices for the month, which offset a 0.3% increase in the food index, marking the slowest monthly pace since July 2022.

Read more: https://unusualwhales.com/news/us-cpi-at-3-2-vs-3-3-expected