The Blubber

Top business leaders are starting to take serious notice. Amid major economic uncertainty, a striking 62% of CEOs now predict a recession or slowdown within the next six months, according to survey results released Monday by Chief Executive.

“This uncertainty needs to stop,” said Donald H. Lloyd II, president and CEO of St. Claire HealthCare in Kentucky. “I support tariffs but believe they need to be applied strategically, not globally.”

The percentage of CEOs anticipating a recession has climbed significantly in recent months. In March, Chief Executive reported that 48% of CEOs expected a recession; just one month later, that figure jumped by 14 percentage points.

While two consecutive quarters of GDP decline is often considered an unofficial indicator of a recession, the National Bureau of Economic Research—the official authority—defines a recession as a “significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”

In April, Chief Executive found that 14% of CEOs were bracing for a “severe recession,” and 39% said they planned to reduce headcount this year.

“I hope I’m wrong, but I expect the ‘pain’ to be here for a while,” said Maura Dunn, president and CEO of TrailBlazer Consulting. “I do not trust the administration to self-correct.”

The survey lands as warnings from Wall Street about a recession—and potentially worse—grow louder.

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, cautioned that the U.S. could face something “worse than a recession.”

“Right now, we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession. I’m worried about something worse than a recession if this isn’t handled well,” Dalio told NBC. “We have something that’s much more profound—we have a breaking down of the monetary order.”

Other executives have pointed out that a recession may not even be the biggest threat. On an April 11 analyst call, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said he “almost doesn’t really care” about how the U.S. economy performs over the next two quarters, noting the country has survived recessions before. What matters more, he said, is that “the Western world stays together economically” and that “we get through all this militarily to keep the world safe and free for democracy.”

Still, JPMorgan raised its recession probability to 60% earlier this month during the market selloff, according to an analyst note titled “There will be Blood.”

“If sustained, this year’s [approximate] 22%-point tariff increase would be the largest U.S. tax hike since 1968,” analysts wrote. “A strong case can be made that the latest tariffs are more damaging, given that the share of imports and broader globalization are considerably larger now than they were in the 1930s.”