The Blubber

SEPT. 17, 2021, 10:10ET:

Culinary and destination-focused cruiseline Oceania Cruises (NCLH) is making some moves today following news regarding bookings for their newest ship, the Vista. On September 15, 2021, Oceania released the itineraries for Vista. Although the ship will not set sail until 2023, NCLH set a new all-time booking record for bookings made in a single day, shattering the previous record by a factor of 60%. Perhaps more impressively, the previous record involved bookings for an entire sailing season and six separate ships, this record was set via bookings for Vista alone.

The flow for NCLH on Wednesday (the day Oceania released the itineraries for Vista) showed signs of bullish expectations, with numerous large orders over $20k in premium on the ask-side. The $22.5 call strike for December 17, 2021 was favored. This shows potential bullish sentiment in the short term.

Today by comparison, we see the strikes and expiration date targets extend more into the future. Following news of the record-breaking single-day booking, investors are targeting the 2023 dates, showing us that sentiment for the long-term for NCLH is bullish. This is potentially aligned with the fact that 2023 is the year Oceania’s new ship will make its debut.

To drive home this sentiment, we can take a look at the Bear v. Bull percentages across various premium ranges.

Of all orders with a minimum of $5000 in premium, 64% are placed on the ask-side, and 65.2% are flagged as bullish orders (i.e. calls bought to open on the ask-side of the spread).

Moving up the line to orders with a minimum of $15k in premium, 75% are ask-side orders, with 68.6% representing bullish flow.

Finally, orders with a minimum of $30k in premium show us 73.9% placed on the ask side, and 63.5% to the bull.

NCLH has traded between +1.3% and +3% for most of this morning, hanging around $25.50 to $25.70 per share.

Given this news, it would appear that investors believe Oceania will see continued upside moving forward. As the world attempts to open up more and more, it appears that cruise liners, and travel in general, may have potential moving forward.