The Blubber

Recent data has illuminated a fascinating trend in the U.S. housing market, highlighting the convergence of prices between existing single-family homes and newly built residences.

In June, the median price for existing single-family homes, which excludes newly constructed properties, stood at $416,000. Intriguingly, this figure aligns closely with the median price for newly built houses in the previous month of May.

While there is an element of comparing apples to oranges due to the absence of June's new home sale price data, the significant reduction in the premium for new homes is noteworthy.

Over the past decade, newly constructed single-family homes typically commanded an average premium of around $60,000 over existing home sales. However, this dynamic shifted substantially in May, with the premium narrowing to less than $15,000.

This transformation can be attributed in part to the pronounced increase in mortgage rates over the past year, with rates hovering just below 7%. This surge has triggered a "rate lock-in" effect, leading to a decreased supply of existing homes on the market, thereby maintaining higher prices for those properties.

Simultaneously, home builders are adapting to the evolving market landscape by offering smaller, more affordable housing options to cater to the demand from first-time buyers, who are facing limited inventory of existing homes.

As a result, the once discernible price discrepancy between older and newer houses is undergoing a process of convergence. This shift underscores the complex interplay between interest rates, housing supply, and buyer preferences in shaping the dynamics of the U.S. housing market. The market's response to these factors continues to surprise and intrigue industry observers.