The Blubber

Peter Thiel, the conservative tech billionaire known for his contrarian viewpoints, has made another bold prediction: the 2024 election will not be close.

Speaking at the All-In Summit earlier this month, Thiel acknowledged that the current race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is "basically 50-50," though he leaned towards Trump being the favorite. However, he argued that the tight margins of the past two elections were historical outliers.

"My contrarian view on the election is that it won't be close. Most presidential elections aren’t," Thiel said. "2016 and 2020 were extremely close, but two-thirds of elections are not."

Without delving too much into specifics, Thiel predicted that either the "Kamala bubble will burst" or "Trump’s base could become demotivated and fail to turn out."

"One side is just going to collapse in the next two months," he added.

Thiel’s prediction happens to align with his personal interests. After spending significantly to support Trump in 2016 and investing millions in key 2022 Senate races for JD Vance in Ohio and Blake Masters in Arizona, Thiel has stepped back from political donations. Despite pressure from GOP vice-presidential nominee JD Vance to reengage, Thiel has maintained his stance, claiming that political spending has minimal impact, especially in what he predicts will be a landslide election.

"If it's not close, money won't make a difference," Thiel said at the summit.

"I'm still very much pro-Trump, pro-JD," Thiel continued. "I've just decided not to donate money politically, but I’m supporting them in every other way I can."

Thiel also made a controversial claim that if the election is close, Harris and the Democrats would resort to "cheating" through ballot harvesting and changes to election rules.

The Harris campaign did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

When asked how he would reform the U.S. electoral process, Thiel expressed support for limiting voting to a single day, reducing absentee ballots, and enforcing stricter voter-ID laws.