The Blubber

Azerbaijani airliner bound for Russia crashes in Kazakhstan, killing 38, after being diverted

An Azerbaijani airliner traveling to Russia crashed in Kazakhstan on Wednesday, killing 38 of the 67 people aboard. Some experts have speculated that the crash may have been caused by Russian air defense systems.

Here’s what is known so far:

What happened to the plane?

The Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190, traveling from Baku, Azerbaijan to Grozny, Russia, was diverted for reasons that remain unclear. The plane crashed while attempting to land in Aktau, Kazakhstan, after flying eastward across the Caspian Sea.

The crash occurred about three kilometers from the coast of Aktau, and cellphone videos online appeared to show the plane descending rapidly before hitting the ground and exploding in flames. Rescuers rushed the 29 survivors to nearby hospitals.

How did Azerbaijan respond?

Azerbaijan declared a nationwide day of mourning on Thursday, lowering national flags and halting traffic at noon. Ships and trains sounded their signals in tribute. President Ilham Aliyev expressed his condolences, stating that the weather had forced the plane to divert from its original course.

He added that the plane had changed course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and headed for Aktau, where it ultimately crashed during the landing attempt.

What do authorities and experts say about the cause?

Authorities from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Russia have launched an investigation into the crash. Embraer, the Brazilian aircraft manufacturer, has stated that it is ready to assist investigators, and Brazil has sent Air Force investigators to Kazakhstan to support the probe.

Russia’s civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, suggested that the plane’s diversion to Aktau may have been due to a bird strike, which triggered an emergency on board.

However, some experts speculated that the damage to the plane's tail section could indicate that it was hit by Russian air defense systems while trying to intercept a Ukrainian drone attack. Mark Zee from OPSGroup, which monitors global airspace risks, claimed that the damage to the plane suggests it was likely struck by a surface-to-air missile with a 90-99 percent probability.

Osprey Flight Solutions, a UK-based aviation security firm, also warned that the flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defense system.

Russian officials, however, have cautioned against speculating that the plane was struck by air defense systems, and investigations are ongoing to determine the exact cause.