The Blubber

Cargo shipments from China to the U.S. West Coast are set to take a sharp downturn next week, as the fallout from President Donald Trump’s latest round of tariffs forces businesses to scale back their imports.

Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, said Tuesday on CNBC’s Squawk Box that the volume of incoming cargo is expected to drop by more than 35% compared to the same week last year.

“Our internal port tracking system, which monitors shipping activity from Asia, shows a decline of just over 35% for next week,” Seroka explained. “It’s a significant falloff, largely driven by major American retailers who are halting imports from China in response to the tariffs.”

China accounts for nearly 45% of the Port of LA’s incoming cargo, Seroka noted. While some shippers are trying to reroute and load goods from other Southeast Asian countries, the overall slowdown is steep.

“Unless the U.S. and China can come to some kind of agreement or set up a new trade framework, shipments from China will stay extremely limited—aside from a few niche products,” he added.

Seroka also predicted that around 25% of scheduled ship arrivals at the port in May will be canceled due to the slowdown.

This drop in volume follows Trump’s early April decision to sharply raise tariffs on Chinese imports, prompting retaliatory actions from China. Both nations are now imposing tariffs of over 100% on a wide range of goods. While U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called the situation “unsustainable,” there’s been no sign of progress on talks to ease tensions.

Trade data from China has already begun showing signs of a pullback in shipments to the U.S., raising red flags for some economists. Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, recently outlined a scenario in which a slowdown in imports leads to job losses in U.S. transportation and retail sectors, empty shelves, and a possible recession later this year.

For now, U.S. retailers still have inventory stocked up in anticipation of the tariffs, but Seroka warned that the buffer won't last long—he estimates stores have between five to seven weeks of supply left.

“I don’t expect stores to go completely bare, but shoppers will start to notice fewer options,” he said. “If you're looking for a blue shirt, you might only find a bunch of purple ones, and maybe a single blue one that’s not in your size. The variety is going to shrink, and the items that do remain are likely to be more expensive.”