The Blubber

The Federal Reserve chose to adopt a cautious stance on the uncertain U.S. economy Wednesday, deciding to leave interest rates unchanged following its March meeting.

As a result, the federal funds rate remains at a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, where it has stayed since December. This marks the second consecutive meeting where the Fed has refrained from adjusting rates, following an active period of rate hikes and cuts over the previous three years.

The Fed also maintained its forecast for two rate cuts in 2025.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m., where investors and economists will closely scrutinize his comments for insights on the future trajectory of the U.S. economy.

The Fed's Dilemma on Interest Rates

Most economists had expected inflation to ease further this year, but the tariffs imposed by President Trump have come sooner and with more impact than anticipated. Trump has already placed a 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminum, 20% on all shipments from China, and 25% on certain goods from Canada and Mexico.

In the coming month, tariffs set to take effect include a 25% levy on remaining imports from Canada and Mexico, 25% on autos, pharmaceuticals, and computer chips, and broad reciprocal tariffs aimed at matching what other nations charge the U.S.

Goldman Sachs forecasts that these tariffs will raise inflation by half a percentage point, as retailers and manufacturers pass on the higher costs to consumers. They also predict a slowdown in economic growth as households experience reduced purchasing power.

Goldman anticipates that the Fed could raise its 2025 inflation forecast from an annual rate of 2.5% to 2.8%. The central bank may also lower its annual growth estimate from 2.1% to 1.8%.