The Blubber

The United States heavily relies on China for its supply of common over-the-counter pain medications, making President Donald Trump's 145% tariffs on Chinese imports particularly impactful on the U.S. pharmaceutical supply chain. According to Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Sløk, approximately 95% of the U.S.'s ibuprofen is sourced from China, based on data from the Coalition for a Prosperous America and the National Institutes of Health's National Center for Biotechnology Information.

China is also a major supplier of other essential medications: over 90% of the U.S.'s hydrocortisone supply, 70% of acetaminophen, and 45% of penicillin imports originate from China. The U.S. is particularly dependent on China for affordable, generic drugs, which constitute about 90% of all prescriptions filled in the country, as reported by the Food and Drug Administration.

The imposition of tariffs has already disrupted the availability of consumer products in the U.S. American companies, anticipating the tariffs, stockpiled goods, but have since reduced orders due to increased costs. Sløk warned in an April 25 post that this could lead to empty shelves in U.S. stores within weeks and shortages reminiscent of those experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Gene Seroka, Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles—the nation's largest port, which receives about 45% of its imports from China—has observed a significant decline in shipments from China. He predicts that retail inventories may only last for another five to seven weeks, leading to potential shortages.

The White House has not provided an immediate response to inquiries regarding plans to exempt medications from the imposed tariffs.

Exacerbating a Drug Shortage

The U.S. is already grappling with persistent drug shortages, with 271 active shortages reported as of January 2025, down from a peak of 323 in early 2024, according to the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists. These shortages are often attributed to factors such as natural disasters disrupting production and regulatory challenges

Industry experts express concern that the new tariffs will intensify existing shortages. John Murphy, President and CEO of the Association of Accessible Medicines, notes that the thin profit margins for generic drugs mean that increased production costs due to tariffs could lead manufacturers to cease production of certain drugs. This, in turn, could result in higher drug prices for consumers and further strain the healthcare system.