The Blubber

The Economist has said a "second Trump term would be a watershed in a way the first was not" and the "fate of the world" will depend on the ballots of "tens of thousands of voters in just a handful of states" in the 2024 presidential election.

Per the Economist:

The analysis highlights that, in all the years of the publication, no single individual has overshadowed the predictions as much as Donald Trump does in 2024. The likelihood of a Trump victory in the upcoming election is increasingly acknowledged, with his dominance in the Republican primary and polls indicating his lead over President Joe Biden in swing states. The study underscores the potential impact of a second Trump term, both domestically and internationally, citing threats to democracy at home and growing hostility from Russia, Iran, and China abroad. The report discusses the organized planning by MAGA Republicans for Trump's second term and the potential consequences, including retribution, economic protectionism, and challenging international relations.

While expressing concerns and despair about a second Trump term, the analysis emphasizes the need to address the anxiety and impose order on the potential outcomes. The greatest threat identified is to the United States itself, as a victorious Trump would likely disregard norms, customs, and institutions, waging war on those that impede his objectives. Internationally, the impact on China and other countries is explored, with the potential confirmation of American dysfunctionality and the erosion of democratic values. The report also delves into the consequences of Trump's protectionist instincts, emphasizing the potential harm to the economy and the increased risk of inflation.

While acknowledging some positive aspects of Trump's first term in foreign policy, the analysis warns that a second term could be different, marked by an unconstrained pursuit of deals and a disregard for reality and values. The report concludes by examining Trump's stance on global issues, including threats to NATO, potential unwavering support for Israel in the Middle East, and a willingness to consider a deal with China at the expense of Taiwan.