The Blubber

The Federal Reserve has not cut rates, and has kept rates the same.

The Federal Reserve of the United States decided to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, signaling a continued inclination towards eventual reductions in borrowing costs. However, the Fed raised concerns about recent disappointing inflation data and suggested a possible halt in progress towards a more balanced economy.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that it would likely take longer than previously anticipated for central bank officials to gain the necessary confidence to begin reducing interest rates. Powell stated in a press conference following the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting that "inflation is still too high," and further progress in reducing it is not guaranteed, leading to uncertainty about the future path.

Despite these concerns, Powell expressed his expectation that inflation would decrease over the course of the year, although he noted that his confidence in this forecast has diminished due to recent data. His comments eased market concerns, with stock and bond prices rising as investors interpreted his remarks as less "hawkish" than feared.

Analysts at Evercore ISI described Powell's statements as "notably less hawkish," suggesting that rate cuts have been delayed rather than abandoned. Investors in contracts tied to the Fed's policy rate increased their bets on rate cuts potentially starting in September, rather than later in the year as previously expected.

The Fed's policy statement maintained key aspects of its economic assessment and guidance, highlighting that inflation has moderated over the past year. The statement reiterated that any reduction in the target range for interest rates would require greater confidence that inflation is moving towards the 2% target sustainably.

Overall, the Fed's statement left the timing of any rate cuts uncertain, emphasizing the lack of further progress towards the inflation objective in recent months. The statement also indicated that while risks to the economy had moved towards better balance over the past year, progress may have stalled recently, reflecting the cautious approach of the Fed in light of evolving economic conditions.