The Blubber

Germany will require hundreds of thousands of immigrants annually to offset the economic challenges posed by an aging population, according to a new study that adds fuel to the ongoing debate over migration.

A report by the Bertelsmann Stiftung, released Tuesday, estimates that Germany will need a net influx of 288,000 workers each year until 2040 if women and older individuals in the existing workforce increase their participation. Without such gains, the required number of migrants rises to 368,000 annually to prevent a significant decline in the labor force that could severely hamper economic growth.

In comparison, Germany experienced average net migration of around 600,000 per year over the past decade, driven by spikes in refugee numbers from conflicts in Syria and Ukraine. This contrasts sharply with the decade prior, which saw an average annual net migration of just 136,000, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from Destatis, the federal statistics agency.

“Demographic change, which will present substantial challenges for the German labor market as baby boomers retire, necessitates immigration,” said Susanne Schultz, a migration expert at Bertelsmann Stiftung. “While the priority must be to better harness the domestic labor force — including both natives and those already immigrated — and increase participation, this alone will not suffice to meet the labor demand through 2040.”

The report comes at a politically charged time, as Germany heads into early elections next year. Economic stagnation and migration have become central themes in campaigns, with far-right and far-left parties that advocate stricter immigration controls gaining traction in the polls after recent surges in refugee arrivals.